# Forecasting

Explain why the moving average method was used instead of another forecasting method.

What might be another forecasting method that could prove to be just as useful?

The figures below indicate the number of mergers that took place in the savings and loan industry over a 12-year period.

 Year Mergers Year Mergers 2000 46 2006 83 2001 46 2007 123 2002 62 2008 97 2003 45 2009 186 2004 64 2010 225 2005 61 2011 240

A, Calculate a 5-year moving average to forecast the number of mergers for 2012.

B. Use the moving average technique to determine the forecast for 2005 to 2011. Calculate measurement error using MSE and MAD.

C. Calculate a 5-year weighted moving average to forecast the number of mergers for 2012. Use weights of 0.10, 0.15, 0.20, 0.25, and 0.30, with the most recent year weighted being the largest.

D. Use regression analysis to forecast the number of mergers in 2012.

ANY OUTSIDE SOURCES MUST BE PROPERLY CITED IN APA FORM THROUGHOUT THE PAPER WITH AN REFERENCE PAGE ALSO….THIS IS A 400 WORD COUNT PAPER….

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